What is CTR Curve?
A CTR curve is the expected click-through rate at each organic Google position — typically ~30% at #1, ~15% at #2, ~10% at #3, dropping to under 2% by position 10. Modern CTR curves have flattened due to AI Overviews and SERP features consuming clicks before the blue links.
Organic CTR by position (industry aggregate)
| Position | Expected CTR |
|---|---|
| 1 | 27.6% |
| 2 | 15.8% |
| 3 | 11.0% |
| 4 | 8.4% |
| 5 | 6.3% |
| 6 | 4.9% |
| 7 | 3.9% |
| 8 | 3.3% |
| 9 | 2.7% |
| 10 | 2.4% |
These are industry-wide averages aggregated across many niches and devices — not measurements from LemRank's own tracked keywords. Any single SERP can vary widely from this curve, especially with AI Overviews or brand terms present.
Model your own CTR gain from a position changeHow CTR Curve works
- The classic Backlinko / AWR 2024 curve: position 1 = 27.6% · 2 = 15.8% · 3 = 11.0% · 4 = 8.4% · 5 = 6.3% · 6 = 4.9% · 7 = 3.9% · 8 = 3.3% · 9 = 2.7% · 10 = 2.4%.
- CTR is heavily brand-modified — a query with your brand name in it can hit 60%+ CTR at position 1.
- SERP features distort the curve — a page with a featured snippet at position 5 often outperforms position 2 without one.
- AI Overviews compress the entire curve on informational queries — CTR at position 1 can drop by 20-40% when an AI Overview is present.
- Compare your actual GSC CTR to the expected curve to identify title/description rewrites that could unlock quick CTR wins.
Example
A page ranking #4 with 6% CTR is exactly on the expected curve. The same page at #4 with 2% CTR has a title problem — probably a boring or truncated title tag. Rewrite the title and CTR can triple without changing position.
Run it on your own keyword
CTR modelling is only useful once you know the exact position you hold today.
Find your real position firstFrequently asked questions about CTR Curve
What is a good CTR for my page?
Compare to the expected curve at your position. If you're at or above the curve, focus on climbing positions. If you're below, rewrite title + description for a quick uplift.
How do AI Overviews affect CTR?
They typically reduce blue-link CTR by 20-40% on informational queries, but pages CITED inside the AI Overview earn compensating referral traffic and brand impressions.
Where can I find my actual CTR?
GSC → Performance → Queries or Pages. Compare "average position" and "CTR" against the expected curve for your position.
Related terms
SERP
SERP stands for Search Engine Results Page — the page Google (or Bing, DuckDuckGo, etc.) returns after a query. Modern SERPs mix classic blue links with AI Overviews, featured snippets, People Also Ask boxes, image packs, videos, and shopping carousels.
AI Overview
An AI Overview is Google's generative answer that appears above the blue links for informational queries. Powered by Gemini, it summarises 3-8 cited sources into a synthesized answer, often with follow-up questions attached. AI Overviews now trigger on ~30% of US queries.
Title Tag
The title tag is the HTML <title> element that becomes your page's clickable headline in Google search results and browser tabs. It's the single strongest on-page relevance signal and the biggest lever on CTR at your current ranking position.
Meta Description
The meta description is the ~155-character snippet under your title tag in Google search results. It's not a direct ranking factor, but it heavily influences click-through rate — a compelling description at position 5 can out-earn a bland one at position 3.